Grains Report 07/23/19

Crop Progress

Date 21-Jul 14-Jul 2018 Avg
Cotton Squaring 78 60 77 80
Cotton Setting Bolls 33 20 40 37
Corn Silking 35 17 78 66
Corn Dough 5 16 10
Soybeans blooming 40 22 76 66
Soybeans Setting Pods 7 41 28
Sorghum Headed 27 24 40 40
Sorghum Coloring 16 14 22 22
Rice Headed 31 24 44 43
Peanuts Pegging 78 67 78 77
Oats Headed 94 87 99 98
Oats Harvested 12 23 22
Winter Wheat Harvested 69 57 78 79
Spring Wheat Headed 92 78 96 94
Barley Headed 90 75 93 95

Crop Condition
Very Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 2 8 30 50 10
Cotton Last Week 3 12 29 47 9
Cotton Last Year 14 19 28 32 7

Corn This Week 3 10 30 47 10
Corn Last Week 3 9 30 48 10
Corn Last Year 3 6 19 50 22

Soybeans This Week 3 9 34 46 8
Soybeans Last Week 3 9 34 46 8
Soybeans Last Year 2 6 22 52 18

Sorghum This Week 1 2 24 60 13
Sorghum Last Week 1 2 23 61 13
Sorghum Last Year 5 11 35 44 5

Rice This Week 1 6 28 46 19
Rice Last Week 1 6 26 50 17
Rice Last Year 1 5 23 56 15

Oats This Week 3 5 28 52 12
Oats Last Week 2 5 25 57 11
Oats Last Year 4 3 21 59 13

Peanuts This Week 1 3 25 62 9
Peanuts Last Week 1 5 25 61 8
Peanuts Last Year 1 3 24 60 12

Barley This Week 0 5 19 58 18
Barley Last Week 0 5 19 62 14
Barley Last Year 0 2 17 67 14

Spring Wheat This Week 0 4 20 63 13
Spring Wheat Last Week 0 4 20 66 10
Spring Wheat Last Year 1 3 17 65 14

Pastures and Ranges This Week 2 7 25 53 13
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 2 6 24 54 14
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 10 16 29 38 7

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Jul 22
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JUL 18, 2019
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 07/18/2019 07/11/2019 07/19/2018 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 0 220 0 2,007 880
CORN 438,045 690,427 1,327,546 43,609,681 49,825,192
FLAXSEED 0 0 122 24 146
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 100 299 1,198
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 60,913 61,518 12,653 1,831,003 4,798,773
SOYBEANS 559,462 855,377 728,139 39,278,790 51,708,497
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 335
WHEAT 433,117 348,519 429,297 3,393,362 2,661,352
Total 1,491,537 1,956,061 2,497,857 88,115,166 108,996,397
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Jul 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 56.463 million pounds, in June, 11.9% below the previous
month, and 6.0% above June 2018, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said Monday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Jun 30 May 31 Jun 30 May 31 warehouse
2019 2019 2018 2018 stocks/Jun
pork bellies 56,463 64,124 53,279
orange juice 859,757 884,215 733,849
french fries 953,593 932,737 941,336
other potatoes 240,626 240,041 270,621
chicken rstr (whole) 21,490 19,583 15,370
ham 170,605 150,109 148,657
total pork 622,367 628,956 561,879 571,807
total beef 394,525 405,152 448,585 388,301
total red meat 1,061,156 1,077,835 1,064,096 1,004,337
total chicken 836,220 834,298 887,984
total turkey 538,765 494,439 561,858
total poultry 1,379,037 1,332,139 1,453,467 1,287,014
===============================================================================

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday as Winter Wheat yield reports have been high and as the market starts to look for more demand. World prices have been firming but US prices remain higher and ideas are that demand must improve down the road to avoid even lower prices next year The harvest is starting to wind down in Kansas and should be well over half done nationally. Yield reports so far this year indicate that overall production will be high. Quality is reported to be good in HRW as protein levels have generally been 11.5 to 12% in the Kansas reports. Now the market is looking for the export demand that USDA indicated was possible in its monthly supply and demand updates. The weekly sales reports have shown only routine demand and that is not enough to support prices. Spring Wheat in the US is generally in good condition as it has had enough rain. The North Dakota Spring Wheat tour is this week and participants should see very good crops. Canada seems to be enjoying better weather as well. It had been very dry in the Prairies but rains have been reported in the last few weeks. The price action in Minneapolis indicates weakness and that lower prices might be coming due to the good conditions in the US and the improved conditions in Canada.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. Northern areas should see showers on Wednesday, otherwise mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see scattered showers off and on in north and east areas, otherwise dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down with objectives of 469, 460, and 436 September. Support is at 481, 474, and 470 September, with resistance at 493, 505, and 510 September. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down with objectives of 390 and 349 September. Support is at 425, 418, and 411 September, with resistance at 441, 452, and 458 September. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 502 and 479 September. Support is at 521, 515, and 512 September, and resistance is at 532, 538, and 543 September.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was a little lower in fairly active trading. Volumes traded for September were strong but the other months mostly went untraded. Crops in the south will start to be drained from the flood soon and that means that the harvest is just around the corner. Sources in Texas expect a good crop, but probably not top yields. That seems to be the refrain in much of the Rice Belt. Crops look good but no one expects super yields due to the very uneven growing season including a lot of rain at planting time and then uneven conditions due to cooler temperatures and varying rains seen until recently. Demand until now has generally been firm in export markets and USD indicated in its monthly supply and demand updates that domestic demand has been much stronger than expected. Futures look prepared to build on gains this week as the market waits for the harvest to get underway.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be near to below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1182, 1172, and 1166 September, with resistance at 1212, 1224, and 1236 September.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower as crop conditions appeared to improve. The weather turned cooler in the Midwest over the weekend to lead to the ideas of improved condition. USDA did not show the improved condition in its reports last night as the good to excellent rating dropped by a point. The Corn crop in general remains very late and Corn genetics mean that the crop can’t do much to catch up. The Midwest and much of the Great Plains will enjoy below normal temperatures although it will turn rather dry once the cold front moves through. The cool temperatures will not promote rapid growth, but there will be growth and the condition should stay generally good. Meanwhile, Corn is a market that needs some demand and the weekly export sales reports have not been strong. Overseas buyers can get cheaper Corn in Argentina. What happens to Corn prices this year will depend in large part on how the US crop develops. It is very late so even normal freeze dates could cause some big production losses. A good crop is possible, but the producer will need a late freeze to get the crop home and into the marketplace.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 420, 400, and 394 September. Support is at 421, 413, and 405 September, and resistance is at 432, 441, and 445 September. Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 265 and 254 September. Support is at 266, 261, and 258 September, and resistance is at 276, 278, and 282 September.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products closed lower on improved weather and still uneven growing conditions. The entire Midwest saw some very hot weather last week but it was not completely dry as scattered showers and storms were reported. That meant that USDA left condition ratings stable last night. It is now cooler and drier now with the movement of the hot air dome to the west. Some big rains were seen over the weekend as the ridge began its movement. It should be mostly dry and much cooler this week. Soybeans were planted very late this year and not all crops are showing good progress. The plants remain small and stressed. Demand news was mixed last week as the export sales report showed weaker demand. However, the Trump administration announced that it was holding a conference call with China in hopes of getting the negotiations back on track and moving forward. There was some talk that China was getting active in buying some US Soybeans to help support futures at the end of last week but these reports were not confirmed and basis levels were reported to be steady.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 886, 876, and 872 August, and resistance is at 906, 918, and 923 August. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 307.00, 304.00, and 300.00 August, and resistance is at 313.00, 316.00, and 317.00 August. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 2750, 2730, and 2710 August, with resistance at 2820, 2830, and 2850 August.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower on Friday in light volume trading. Agrifoods Canada estimated production at 18.575 million tons and some think production could go lower due to the uneven weather conditions. Some private sources have estimated production below 18 million tons. Most areas are seeing better weather now, but the weather has been dry and sometimes hot in many growing areas until recently. Growing conditions are improving after rains in the last couple of weeks, but there are areas that are still reported to be too dry. Traders are expecting good but not great crops right now. Palm Oil was a little higher on follow through buying tied to positive demand news reported by the private sources. The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market has broken out to the upside and that at least a short-term rally is possible now. There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand. Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 446.00, 442.00, and 437.00 November, with resistance at 452.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 1940, 1910, and 1880 October, with resistance at 1990, 2010, and 2030 October.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should be near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
July +54 Sep +140 Sep +45 Sep +56 Aug +12 Aug N/A
August +46 Sep +50 Sep +53 Aug
September +48 Sep +70 Sep +34 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
July
August
September

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Jul 22
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, July 22 (MarketsFarm) – The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, July 22.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract Change
*Par Region 439.60 -10.00 Nov 2019 up 4.20
Track Thunder Bay 459.00 12.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.60
Track Vancouver 467.00 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 2.76
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – July 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday applied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 497.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 500.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 517.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 547.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Aug 502.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Sep 505.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 522.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 552.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 482.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 337.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 1,930 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Aug 136 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR 4.1100)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jul 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 140,356 lots, or 4.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 3,383 3,416 3,383 3,387 3,383 3,399 16 126,626 130,212
Nov-19 3,452 3,475 3,447 3,447 3,436 3,456 20 38 376
Jan-20 3,406 3,420 3,405 3,405 3,407 3,412 5 13,122 58,666
Mar-20 – – – 3,413 3,413 3,413 0 0 30
May-20 3,516 3,526 3,516 3,518 3,519 3,521 2 570 26,866
Jul-20 – – – 3,509 3,509 3,509 0 0 10
Corn
Turnover: 450,736 lots, or 8.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-19 1,915 1,920 1,912 1,918 1,914 1,915 1 260,396 784,784
Nov-19 1,928 1,944 1,928 1,944 1,939 1,938 -1 29,700 350,424
Jan-20 1,965 1,973 1,963 1,973 1,969 1,968 -1 152,270 660,426
Mar-20 1,985 1,991 1,981 1,991 1,988 1,988 0 52 2,176
May-20 2,026 2,035 2,026 2,033 2,034 2,031 -3 7,836 125,914
Jul-20 2,033 2,050 2,033 2,049 2,054 2,042 -12 482 424
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,533,668 lots, or 43.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 2,865 2,865 2,825 2,837 2,866 2,842 -24 304 978
Sep-19 2,801 2,815 2,800 2,814 2,810 2,807 -3 1,140,988 1,392,298
Nov-19 2,836 2,838 2,825 2,835 2,849 2,833 -16 76,120 217,742
Dec-19 2,843 2,850 2,815 2,848 2,833 2,835 2 596 1,190
Jan-20 2,846 2,854 2,835 2,844 2,852 2,843 -9 279,562 774,168
Mar-20 2,780 2,785 2,780 2,784 2,797 2,783 -14 10 718
May-20 2,748 2,751 2,735 2,740 2,745 2,742 -3 36,056 246,050
Jul-20 2,738 2,740 2,733 2,737 2,742 2,736 -6 32 168
Palm Oil
Turnover: 508,400 lots, or 21.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,350 4,288 4,350 62 2
Sep-19 4,212 4,260 4,208 4,246 4,198 4,230 32 414,032 556,796
Oct-19 4,338 4,366 4,262 4,364 4,344 4,318 -26 98 22
Nov-19 – – – 4,274 4,298 4,274 -24 0 14
Dec-19 – – – 4,478 4,478 4,478 0 0 10
Jan-20 4,406 4,424 4,396 4,414 4,396 4,406 10 91,348 280,082
Feb-20 – – – 4,482 4,472 4,482 10 0 4
Mar-20 – – – 4,608 4,598 4,608 10 0 12
Apr-20 – – – 4,538 4,528 4,538 10 0 2
May-20 4,632 4,642 4,626 4,630 4,626 4,632 6 2,920 37,234
Jun-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 2
Jul-20 – – – 4,692 4,692 4,692 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 510,524 lots, or 27.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Aug-19 – – – 5,406 5,406 5,406 0 0 32
Sep-19 5,432 5,454 5,420 5,452 5,414 5,438 24 355,666 625,094
Nov-19 – – – 5,492 5,492 5,492 0 0 6
Dec-19 – – – 5,524 5,524 5,524 0 0 28
Jan-20 5,582 5,598 5,568 5,594 5,570 5,580 10 147,366 401,640
Mar-20 – – – 5,610 5,610 5,610 0 0 12
May-20 5,674 5,696 5,670 5,692 5,676 5,682 6 7,492 55,874
Jul-20 – – – 5,700 5,700 5,700 0 0 0
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.