Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 to 3 cents higher on Turnaround Tuesday. They ended the Monday session with most contracts lower by 7 to 9 cents per bushel. The drop in crop condition ratings last week suggested to some potential yield loss. We see the change as statistically insignificant. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 35% of the crop silking as of Sunday vs. the 66% average, with 5% in the dough stage (10% average). Corn conditions slipped 1% to 57% gd/ex and 2 points on the Brugler500 index to 351. This was due to heat stress in a number of states during the reporting period. The Export Inspections report from USDA showed corn shipments of just 438,045 MT in the week that ended on July 18. That was a 36.56% drop from last week and less than 1/3 of the same week last year. AgRural estimates the Brazilian second corn crop is 67% harvested, which is well above the 36% from this week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 2 cents per bushel higher this morning. They closed Monday with most nearby contracts 13 to 13 1/2 cents lower. August soybean meal was down $2.80/ton, with soy oil 37 points lower. Cooler forecasts and no confirmation of rumored Chinese purchases caused some selling pressure. Monday afternoon’s NASS report indicated that 40% of the US soybean crop was blooming as of 7/21 (66% avg), with 7% setting pods (28% avg). As expected, conditions were unch at 54% gd/ex and 347 on the Brugler 500index. USDA reported 559,462 MT of soybeans inspected for export during the week that ended on July 18. That was 34.6% below the week prior and down 23.17% from this week in 2018. Of that total, 317,456 MT was headed to China.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 3 to 4 cents higher in all three markets this morning after being down 8 to 15 1/4 cents in most contracts on Monday. All wheat exports for the week that ended on 7/18 were tallied at 433,117 MT via USDA’s Export Inspections report. That was a 24.27% jump from the previous week and slightly higher than that week in 2018. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. NASS reported the spring wheat crop at 76% good/ex condition, unch from the previous week with the Brugler500 up 3 points on a swing from good TO excellent. The crop was reported at 92% headed vs. the 94% average. The winter wheat harvest progressed 12% from the previous week to 69% complete but still lags the 79% average pace. Egypt is tendering for wheat, with results expected on Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw 65 to 85 cent gains in the front months on Monday, following Friday’s USDA reports. Feeder cattle futures received some additional help from weaker corn, with the front months $2.20 to $2.625 higher. The monthly NASS Cold Storage report indicated another drop in frozen beef stocks to 394.525 million lbs on June 30. That was down 2.62% from May and 12.05% below a year ago to reach a 5-year low. That is the first time beef stocks have been under 400 million lbs since Oct 2014. The CME feeder cattle index was down 49 cents @ $138.16 on July 19. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Monday afternoon with Choice boxes down a dime per cwt at $213.32 and Select boxes 8 cents higher @ $189.59. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter at 114,000 head, which is 3,000 head below last week and 4,000 above the same Monday last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were firm to 40 cents higher in most contracts on Monday. August was down 65 cents, marking time as it is showing a $10 premium to the Index. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 88 cents from the previous day on July 18 @ $72.40. The newly updated CME Fresh Bacon Index was up $5.81 wk/wk at $137.89/cwt. The USDA pork carcass cutout value rose $2.08 at $80.61 on Monday afternoon. The national average base hog value was up $3.78 on Monday at $76.02. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 473,000 head on Monday. That was up 63,000 head from the previous week and 49,000 head below the same week last year. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were tallied at 622.367 million lbs. That was up 10.77% from last year but a drop of 1.05% from May. Belly stocks were up 5.98% from a year ago at 56.563 million lbs, but down 11.95% from May.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 12 to 30 points higher to begin your Tuesday. They settled firm to 39 points higher in the front months on Monday. The weekly Crop Progress report from NASS showed the 2019 US cotton crop at 78% squared (80% avg), as 33% was setting bolls (37% avg). Cotton conditions improved another 4% to 60% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 shifting 11 points higher to 358. The 7-day QPF shows very little moisture for most of TX over the next week, with parts of the Southeast seeing a few showers. TS Barry helped more acres than it hurt. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 75 points from the previous day at 72.95 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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