The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.30%.  The dollar today is moderately higher on easing global trade tensions after President Trump announced a new comprehensive trade deal with the UK. The dollar also found support after US weekly jobless claims fell more than expected and Q1 unit labor costs rose more than expected, hawkish factors for Fed policy.  In addition, the dollar has carryover support from Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said, "I don't think we need to be in a hurry to adjust interest rates." Gains in the dollar were limited after Q1 nonfarm productivity declined for the first time in almost 3 years. 

US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -13,000 to 228,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of 230,000.

US Q1 nonfarm productivity fell -0.8%, right on expectations and the first decline in 2-3/4 years.  Q1 unit labor costs rose +5.7%, which is stronger than expectations of +5.1% and the most in a year.

The markets are discounting the chances at 20% for a -25 bp rate cut after the June 17-18 FOMC meeting.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today is up by +0.03%.  The euro today is posting modest gains after German Mar industrial production rose more than expected by the most in almost 3-1/2 years.  Also, higher German bund yields today have strengthened the euro's interest rate differentials.  Today's dollar strength is limiting gains in the euro.

German Mar industrial production rose +3.0% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m and the biggest increase in almost 3-1/2 years.

German trade news was mixed as German Mar exports rose +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +1.0% m/m. However, Mar imports unexpectedly fell -1.4% m/m versus expectations of a +0.4% m/m increase.

Swaps are discounting the chances at 95% for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the June 5 policy meeting.

USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.51%.  The yen is moderately lower today on reduced safe-haven demand after President Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, easing global trade tensions.  The yen is also under pressure from the dovish minutes of the March 18-19 BOJ meeting. Losses in the yen are limited after the 10-year JGB bond yield climbed to a 1-week high today, strengthening the yen's interest rate differentials.

The minutes of the March 18-19 BOJ meeting were slightly dovish as one member said the BOJ would need to be "particularly cautious" when considering the timing of interest rate hikes if the possibility of severe impact from the US tariff campaign increases.  Also, one member said it doesn't seem necessary to make any major changes to the current plan to reduce bond purchases, and another member said it is appropriate to maintain the current policy for the time being.

June gold (GCM25) today is down -28.50 (-0.84%), and July silver (SIN25) is up +0.069 (+0.21%).  Precious metals prices today are mixed.  Today's stronger dollar is weighing on precious metals.  Also, easing global trade tensions have curbed safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump announced a trade deal with the UK.  Higher global bond yields today are also weighing on precious metals prices.  In addition, precious metals have a negative carryover from Wednesday when Fed Chair Powell said, "I don't think we need to be in a hurry to adjust interest rates."

Silver prices erased early losses today and moved higher after German Mar industrial production posted its largest increase in almost 3-1/2 years, a supportive factor for industrial metals demand.  Also, today's US trade deal with the UK bolsters hopes that crippling tariffs by President Trump will be negotiated down, averting lasting damage to economic growth and industrial metals demand.

Losses in precious metals today are limited after the BOE cut interest rates, which boosts demand for precious metals as a store of value.  Also, escalating geopolitical risks in South Asia have boosted safe-haven demand for precious metals after India conducted military strikes against Pakistan in response to a militant attack in Kashmir.  In addition, geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to support safe-haven demand for precious metals as the Israel-Hamas conflict continues and as Israel launched an airstrike on Houthi rebels in Yemen.