US and Chinese officials have been holding marathon talks in London this week. The goal? Hammer out a way to move forward, possibly with looser rare-earth export restrictions in China and easier tech export restrictions in the US.

But I’m starting to wonder if the winner of the US-China trade war isn’t...India!

Take a look at the MoneyShow Chart of the Day here. It shows the 3-month performance of the iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA), the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the iShares China Large Cap ETF (FXI).

INDA, SPY, FXI (YTD % Change)

You can see that INDA sold off when the initial volleys in this trade war were fired...but then came back strongly. It's now up more than 12% in the last three months. That compares to a 4.4% rise in the SPY and essentially no change for FXI.

What’s behind that dynamic? Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is reportedly eager to make a deal with President Trump. Both sides have since said talks are going well, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently forecasting a deal “in the not-too-distant future.”

Other leaks have suggested both sides want “early wins” as the end of the 90-day global tariff pause approaches. And of course, we’re seeing some companies shift production and supply lines to India in a bid to avoid some of the geopolitical ire and pressure directly at China.

Regardless of the reason, funds like INDA are benefiting. Top holdings in the ETF include financial giants HDFC Bank Ltd. and ICICI Bank Ltd., energy plays like Reliance Industries Ltd., and technology sector names like Infosys Ltd. and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.

If you’re looking to profit from foreign market outperformance, consider the country that looks like a potential winner in the US-China trade war!

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