WALSH PURE SPREADER -Pure Hedge Division-
Rich Moran 8/6/2025
WALSH PURE SPREADER
-Pure Hedge Division-
NOV-JAN Soybean Spread (ZSX25-ZSF26)
The NOV-JAN Soybean Spread (ZSX25-ZSF26) has been trending downward since its 52-week high of -6¾ on Jan 22nd. This trend continued until its 52-week low of -19 on July 28th. In particular, this spread has made a very strong and direct move down since its 14-day high of -12½ on June 16th. During this recent 6 week slide the individual/outright markets have had some good fluctuations, but the spread continued its steady decline.
Since halting this strong downward move at -19 on July 28th, ZSX25-ZSF26 has settled between -18¼ and -18¾, for eight consecutive trading sessions, including today’s settlement of -18¾. It seems like this strong slide down in the spread may have stalled.
Full carry for this spread is 27.27 and today’s settlement of -18¾ brings us to 68.8% of full carry. History shows that soybean spreads are not known for reaching full carry. I am not suggesting to buy the spread right here, right now, so close to its 52-week low, but we are only about 1 cent from the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.
If we can settle above both moving averages, I think we should try to get long this spread with a short stop somewhere below the 52-week low of -19. We can pick our exact risk/reward levels if/when we are able to initiate the position.
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Following up on past trade ideas:
- 8/1/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT’25 Live Cattle-OCT’25 Lean Hogs Spread)
Today's Settlement: 137.675, If we are fortunate enough to have this spread, LEV25-HEV25, settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could be a good time to short it. It just might be a more comfortable way to slide some Live Cattle shorts into our position.
- 7/30/25: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC’25 Wheat-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 128, I suggested getting short on the open yesterday (Thursday) at 132 (Wednesday’s settlement) or better. It opened on its high of 131¾, ¼ tic lower. We missed for now and are still re-evaluating.
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))
Today’s Settlement: -19¼, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.
- 7/18/25: ZLZ25-ZLH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread)
Today’s settlement: -0.12, Long at +0.15
Risking 0.30 cents (-0.15) or $180 to make 0.90 cents (+1.05) or $540
- 7/16/25 (6/20/2025) (ZCU25-ZCZ25 (SEP-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -21½, Short at -17½
Risk 3½ cents (-14) or $175 to make 8.5 cents (-26) or $425
We moved our stop up to -17½ to scratch. I hate turning winners into losers
- 7/9/2025: (LEG26x2)-GFQ25-ZCU25
(FEB’26 Live Cattle x 2, AUG ’25 Feeder Cattle, SEP ’25 Corn – Cattle Crush Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -262.22, Still looking to get short and waiting to settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages.
- 7/2/25: 7/2/2025: ZMQ25-ZMZ25 (AUG-DEC’25 Soybean Meal Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -11.9, I suggested looking to buy it this week at Friday’s (8/1’s) settlement of -13.0 or better as long as it is still above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. It did settle above both those averages today and it looks like we could have bought it today at -13. It settled -11.9, but ZMQ25’s (AUG Soybean Meal’s) last day of trading is next Thursday (8/14). If you did put this spread on, I would exit the trade tomorrow or put a stop in first thing tomorrow morning.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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