WALSH PURE SPREADER -Pure Hedge Division-
WALSH PURE SPREADER -Pure Hedge Division-
Richard Moran August 8, 2025General Commentary Leave a Comment
Rich Moran 8/8/2025
ZMU25-ZMF26 (SEP25-JAN26 Soybean-Meal Spread)
We had been following the AUG-DEC’25 Soybean-Meal Spread (see down below under “Following up on past trade ideas”). It has reached our “buy” level that we had been looking for above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, but the AUG Soybean-Meal (ZMQ25) contract is approaching its last day of trading next Thursday (8/14) so I have moved my attention to the Sep25-Jan26 Soybean-Meal Spread (ZMU25-ZMF26). This spread has a very similar trading pattern and is also hovering just above the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. This spread, ZMU25-ZMF26, settled above these moving averages on 8/4/25, a few days after SEP25 Soybean-Meal (ZMU25) outright market bounced off its 52-week low of $262.5 on 7/31/25. The outright market may be stabilizing, but I feel this spread could now hang tough even if the outright market does soften.
Full carry for ZMU25-ZMF26 is 20.83, so we are trading at about 60% of full carry. Soybean Meal Spreads are not known for reaching full carry, not to mention the fact that this spread has traded as high as +0.4 on 10/1/24, just above par (0.0). This same spread a year earlier had a trading range from -9.8 to as high as +12.3.
I am suggesting to try to get long ZMU25-ZMF26 on the open this coming Monday at -11.7 or better.
Risk 4.0 or $400 Per Spread to make 10.0 or $1,000.
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Following up on past trade ideas:
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -19, If we can settle above both moving averages, I think we should try to get long this spread with a short stop somewhere below the 52-week low of -19¼ . We can pick our exact risk/reward levels if/when we are able to initiate the position.
- 8/1/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT’25 Live Cattle-OCT’25 Lean Hogs Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 135.300, If we are fortunate enough to have this spread, LEV25-HEV25, settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could be a good time to short it. It just might be a more comfortable way to slide some Live Cattle shorts into our position.
- 7/30/25: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC’25 Wheat-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 129½, We were able to get short at 132 yesterday (8/7). I suggested getting short on the open last Thursday (7/31) at 132 (Wednesday’s settlement) or better. It opened on its high of 131¾, ¼ tic lower. We were not able to sell it until yesterday.
Risk 5 cents (137) or $250 Per Spread to make 15 cents (117) or $750 Per Spread
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))
Today’s Settlement: -19¼ , Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.
- 7/18/25: ZLZ25-ZLH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Soybean Oil Spread)
Today’s settlement: -0.12, Long at +0.15
Risking 0.30 cents (-0.15) or $180 to make 0.90 cents (+1.05) or $540
We got stopped out yesterday for a 0.3 cents loss or $180
- 7/16/25 (6/20/2025): ZCU25-ZCZ25 (SEP-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -22¾, Short at -17½
Risk 3½ cents (-14) or $175 to make 8.5 cents (-26) or $425
We moved our stop up to -17½ to scratch. I hate turning winners into losers
- 7/9/2025: (LEG26x2)-GFQ25-ZCU25
(FEB’26 Live Cattle x 2, AUG ’25 Feeder Cattle, SEP ’25 Corn – Cattle Crush Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -264.45, We were looking to get short and waiting to settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. Giventhat this Cattle Crush includes an August contract (GFQ25), it is time to stop following this Crush for a trade to put on. We will look for a similar trade with more time.
- 7/2/25: 7/2/2025: ZMQ25-ZMZ25 (AUG-DEC’25 Soybean Meal Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -11.9, I had suggested looking to buy it this week at Friday’s (8/1’s) settlement of -13.0 or better as long as it is still above both the 14-day and 21-day moving averages. It did settle above both those averages today and it looks like we could have bought it today at -13. It settled -11.9, but ZMQ25’s (AUG Soybean Meal’s) last day of trading is next Thursday (8/14). If you did put this spread on, I would exit the trade tomorrow or put a stop in first thing tomorrow morning.
I am not going to follow this spread for a trade anymore given that we lose ZMG25 next week. If you were long at -13, you should, worst scenario, be out for a scratch. Hopefully you made a few bucks. Today’s article is about a substitute Soybean-Meal Spread.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
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