WALSH PURE SPREADER -Pure Hedge Division-
Rich Moran 8/6/2025
WALSH PURE SPREADER
-Pure Hedge Division-
DEC’25 CORN-OATS SPREAD (ZCZ25-ZOZ25)
We have been short corn through the SEPT-DEC Corn Spread (ZCU25-ZCZ25) for some time now (see “following up on trade ideas” below). In that spread we may be looking to raise our stop from a scratch to a profit. When I get a good lead on a trade, I like to walk away with at least some profit.
Corn has obviously been trending down for a while now and that continued yesterday with its sharply lower move after the WASDE Report was released. The DEC Corn-Oats Spread (ZCZ25-ZOZ25) continued its over-all downward trend as well and settled down 9 cents to 54¾. With all the negative fundamentals in the corn market, I just don’t see the downward trend in this spread turning around yet either. The spread did get some of its loss back today, but could not quite get to either the 14-day or 21-day moving average and settled just below those at 61¼.
If tomorrow we find ZCZ25-ZOZ25 trading below 61¼, I suggest getting short the spread, but not below 59¼. Let’s use a short stop of 4 cents above our entry price, which will bring us slightly above the recent activity of the14-day and 21-day moving averages.
Risk 4 cents or $200 to make 16 cents or $800.
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Following up on past trade ideas:
- 8/8/25 ZMU25-ZMF26 (SEP’25-JAN’26 Soybean Meal Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -13.8, Long at -11.7
Risking 4.0 (-15.7) or $400 Per Spread to make 10.0 (-1.7) or $1,000
- 8/6/25: ZSX25-ZSF26 (NOV-JAN Soybean Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -18½, If we can settle above both moving averages, I think we should try to get long this spread with a short stop somewhere below the 52-week low of -19¼ . We can pick our exact risk/reward levels if/when we are able to initiate the position. We open above both moving averages, but settled below both.
- 8/1/25: LEV25-HEV25 (OCT’25 Live Cattle-OCT’25 Lean Hogs Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 138.650, If we are fortunate enough to have this spread, LEV25-HEV25, settle below the 14-day and 21-day moving averages, I think it could be a good time to short it. It just might be a more comfortable way to slide some Live Cattle shorts into our position.
- 7/30/25: ZWZ25-ZCZ25 (DEC’25 Wheat-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: 131, Short at 132
Risk 5 cents (137) or $250 Per Spread to make 15 cents (117) or $750 Per Spread
- 7/23/25: ZWZ25-ZWH26 (DEC’25-MAR’26 Wheat Spread))
Today’s Settlement: -18½, Long at -18½
Risking 3½ cents (-22) or $175 Per Spread to make 10 cents (-8½) or $500 Per Spread.
- 7/16/25 (6/20/2025): ZCU25-ZCZ25 (SEP-DEC’25 Corn Spread)
Today’s Settlement: -23¼, Short at -17½
Risk 3½ cents (-14) or $175 to make 8.5 cents (-26) or $425
We moved our stop up to -17½ to scratch. I hate turning winners into losers – I am now moving our stop down up to -21 so we will at least make (3½ cents or $175) what we were initially risking.
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Rich Moran
Senior Commodities Broker
Direct: (312)985-0298
Cell: (773)502-5321
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